[1]
By John Helmer, Moscow
@bears_with [2]
The Trump Administration and its NATO allies are clear:
They will escalate their war against Russia at sea, deploying their navies to enforce trade blockades, ship sabotage and seizures, and the closure of sea lanes, and to launch “pre-emptive” attacks before their targets can defend themselves. This is sea war to achieve regime change on land.
Trump’s current targets are Iran, Venezuela, Cuba, Russia, North Korea, China, and India.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio told [3] a Senate Committee hearing on Wednesday that if these targets attempt to deter the US escalation by raising their guard, the US Navy will shoot first.
“It’s wise and prudent,” Rubio said, “to have a force posture within the region that could respond and potentially, not necessarily what’s going to happen, but if necessary, preemptively prevent the attack against thousands of American servicemen and other facilities in the region. And our allies. I hope it doesn’t come to that, but that’s I think what you’re seeing now is the ability to posture assets in the region to defend against what could be an Iranian threat against our personnel.”
The Putin Administration is less than clear on what it will do to defend its flag vessels and the oil cargoes it is dispatching to its allies.
On the Anglo-American operation to seize the Russian-flagged tanker Marinera, off the west coast of Scotland on January 7, the Russian Foreign Ministry announced it was an act of piracy, not an act of war against the Russian flag nor an act of war as trade blockades are treated in the United Nations Charter [4].
According to a legal source close to Moscow, the US warrants for the seizure of the Marinera and arrest of the master and crew claim the vessel was operating in violation of US sanctions against Iran, not US sanctions against Russia.
There has been no explanation for the failure of the Marinera’s Russian naval escort, a submarine and a corvette, to defend against the “pirates”. The Foreign Ministry spokesman, Maria Zakharova, called for release of the two Russian crew on the vessel, and then thanked the US for their release. When this did not materialize as advertised, the ministry complained of the delay. On January 28, the two Russians were released and were “on their way home”, according [5]to Zakharova.
The captain and first officer of the vessel appear to have been Georgian; they remain under arrest in the UK on an extradition application by the US for prosecution in a US court. The two Russians and the Indian majority of the 26-man crew are being released and repatriated “in line with standard UK immigration and legal procedures [6]”. No favour has been shown by either the US or the UK to the Russian Foreign Ministry.
On January 22, the French military attacked and seized the tanker Grinch in international waters of the Mediterranean, off the Spanish coast, and took the vessel and crew to Marseille. The Comoros-flagged vessel was carrying a cargo of Russian crude oil to a destination in either Turkey or India; the captain is Indian. There has been no public Russian or Indian response [7] in defence of the Grinch’s cargo, the vessel, or the crew.
On the tightening of the US blockade against Cuba, including threats against blockade-busting supplies of oil, Russian and Mexican, to the island, Zakharova announced yesterday [8]: “Representatives of the US administration have threatened Cuba many times, including by mentioning their readiness to blow up everyone there and trying to force Havana to make a deal…The United States has used every trick to tighten the blockade, including by adding Cuba to the infamous US list of state sponsors of terrorism…we express the hope that allegations contained in these media reports are groundless, and that common sense eventually prevails in Washington…We reaffirm our unwavering solidarity with the people and authorities of fraternal Cuba.”
Russian sources believe the Kremlin’s will and the Russian Navy’s readiness to defend against these attacks are wavering. According to Oleg Tsarev, the Crimea-based leader of the Ukrainian opposition, this is “the art of great maritime patience.”
“The EU”, Tsarev wrote on January 27, “intends to close the Baltic Sea for the shadow fleet of Russia…Almost half of the offshore oil export from Russia goes through the Baltic Sea. Now the conditions are being created in which every exit of a Russian tanker from the Baltic can end with its arrest or forced entry to [EU] port for inspection… When the EU moves from words to deeds, the flow of Russian oil through the Baltic will lead to disastrous consequences for the budget and put the state on the brink of survival. Russia may continue to exercise the art of great maritime patience but in case of detention of Russian tankers in the Baltic Sea, you need to have a plan with specific countermeasures.”
On the escalating US threat against Russian use of the Arctic sea lanes – the Northern Route, as it is known in Russian – President Vladimir Putin announced on January 21 [9]: “what is happening around Greenland does not concern us in any way.” No public elaboration has followed in Moscow [10].
On the new declaration of the Baltic and North Sea states, issued on Monday [11], to stop and seize Russian oil cargoes and the tankers carrying them, whether Russian flagged or not, has so far drawn no public Russian Government reaction. The declaration explicitly blames the Russian alternative fleet running the gauntlet of US and EU sanctions for creating “new emerging safety situations…particularly in the Baltic Sea region. These disturbances, originating from the Russian Federation, degrade the safety of international shipping. All vessels are at risk.”
Vessels will be stopped and seized, the document proposes [11], if they “sail under the flags of two or more states”; if they turn off vessel identification and tracking signals; if they “conduct ship-to-ship transfers without sufficient and timely notification to the coastal state in whose exclusive economic zone the transfer is to take place”; and other coastal state route conditions.
“These are new challenges,” a well-placed Moscow source responds. “If you act like a pirate, you will be treated as a pirate.” The Russian oil exporters and transporters, the source said, “can’t continue indulging in this. Russians cannot outrun the blockade unless they stop being pirates. If they act as pirates, it’s not an act of war to stop them.” The source adds: “we must begin by flying the Russian flag, crewing the vessels with Russians, and deploying armed units on each vessel. That was the method for dealing with Somali pirates. We have to take the high road – legitimize vessel registration and the cargoes. Only then can the Russians legimitately use the armed forces to defend, and also deter attacks.”
Click to view the discussion with Dimitri Lascaris of what will happen next in the sea war in the new Reason2Resist podcast [12], recorded on Wednesday evening Moscow time.
[13]For the history of President Putin’s management of the Russian fleet and of oligarch attempts to privatize it corruptly, read this book: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0CH2CM8W7 [14]
[15]Left: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0CH2CM8W7 [14] Right: https://www.junonews.com/p/trump-privately-fuming-over-canadas [16]
MAP OF RUSSIAN, NATO, US, AND CANADIAN SECURITY AREAS AND BASES IN THE ARCTIC AS OF 2024
[17]Source: https://www.thesimonsfoundation.ca/sites/default/files/MilitaryFootprintsintheArctic_Final%2C%20March%202024.pdf [18]
“Citing two U.S. officials, a senior administration official and three former senior U.S. officials, NBC News reported that Trump has argued Canada needs to dramatically increase its defence spending and do more to fortify its northern border as Washington develops a broader Arctic strategy ” — for background on Trump’s escalating threats against the Canadian Arctic islands, read this: https://www.junonews.com/p/trump-privately-fuming-over-canadas [16]