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By John Helmer, Moscow
  @bears_with

The war to end all wars is a refrain which began with the British in 1914.  It was a domestic political ploy to convince those who should pay and then die.  

They paid, they died, and though the line was discredited within a decade, they still pay. Nowadays, the British (not only them) are persuaded that if they pay, the Russians will die.

When the Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov announced on Tuesday morning that the terms on which the Russian Army will stop advancing across the Ukraine must be “for many generations to come”, he was talking to the Russians, not to the Americans, Europeans or Ukrainians. “We highly appreciate the efforts of US President Trump and his administration,” Peskov added, “and we want to solve our security problems for many generations to come.”  

Putin had explained the night before in Moscow. The Europeans (he included the British) “have no peace agenda; they are on the side of war. Even when they ostensibly attempt to introduce amendments to Trump’s proposals, we see this clearly – all their amendments are directed towards one single aim: to completely obstruct this entire peace process, to put forward demands that are utterly unacceptable to Russia (they understand this), and thereby subsequently to place the blame for the collapse of the peace process upon Russia. That is their objective. We see this plainly.”  

The conclusion for Russians is obvious, Putin added. “If Europe wants to wage a war against us and suddenly starts a war with us, we are ready. There should be no doubt about that. The only question is if Europe suddenly starts a war against us, I think very quickly…Europe is not Ukraine. In Ukraine, we are acting with surgical precision. You see my point, don’t you? It is not a war in the direct, modern sense of the word. If Europe suddenly decides to go to war against us and actually follows through with it, then a situation may arise very quickly where we will be left with no one to negotiate with.”  

Putin was making the same point for President Donald Trump and his generals to hear. The warning is nuclear war,  or the Oreshnik,  or both.

In point of fact, according to the latest opinion polls, Russians believe the US to be the far greater enemy to Russia than the European alliance; the Ukraine trails in third place. Also, the opinion polls reveal, public trust in the decision-making of President Vladimir Putin, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, the government and the parliament has begun to turn downwards. This is a caution that a temporary deal with the US, on terms paying cash rewards to the Trump family and to the Russian oligarchs, but do not end the economic warfare at once and restart the fighting within five years, will be unacceptable.

The picture of Steven Witkoff and Jared Kushner smiling across the table at Putin, Yury Ushakov and Kirill Dmitriev on Tuesday afternoon is understood by Russian voters to show the enemy’s money is doing the talking. The absence from the Kremlin table of the Russian generals with whom Putin was talking at their command post on Monday  is not the reassurance Peskov intended to give.

Click to view the new discussion with Nima Alkhorshid of the precedents for peace-making and for continuing the war against Russia,  which were first set at the Versailles conference after World War I,  and then in the capitulation documents for the defeated Germans and Japanese in 1945. It is by these standards, and what we recognise of their failure to solve Russia’s “security problems for many generations to come”, that Russians are judging the latest round of table talks.

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By John Helmer, Moscow
  @bears_with

When the Americans were fighting the British, it was Benjamin Franklin who reportedly told Thomas Jefferson at a strategy session: “We must all hang together, or most assuredly we shall all hang separately.” President Vladimir Putin and Prime Minister Narendra Modi will shortly be sitting down in Modi’s study to discuss this predicament, and Franklin’s advice, as they face end of war, pause of war terms dictated earlier in the week by President Donald Trump.

In this new podcast from Delhi with Joyeeta Basu, Editor of the Sunday Guardian, we begin with the genocide against the Russians, aka the Clinton-Yeltsin plan of 1991-96, and fast-forward to the Miami plan, the Geneva plan, and the Abu Dhabi plan of Trump, Steven Witkoff, Jared Kushner and Daniel Driscoll, which are being carried to the Kremlin in the coming week. We discuss the terms Putin will explain to Modi that he has accepted from the Americans, those he has postponed for later, and those he has rejected.

What the terms mean for the Troika, for Russia’s relations with India, and also with China, comes at the climax of the podcast. Click to view: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KIi2saIwftU 



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By John Helmer, Moscow
  @bears_with

For this week, ahead of President Vladimir Putin’s arrival in India on December 6, I am in meetings in Delhi. Here is our first conversation with Sandeep Unnithan and Chakra News: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MHh0aXP1SA4 



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By John Helmer, Moscow
  @bears_with

In today’s podcast, we go step-wise through the Florida plan of Steven Witkoff and Kirill Dmitriev (28 points); the Geneva plan of Daniel Driscoll and the US Army generals (19 points); and the Abu Dhabi plan of Driscoll, the US Army Generals, Dmitriev and a secret Russian business representative, excluding the Foreign Ministry, the General Staff and the intelligence services (19 points minus 19). Then we reach the conclusion that the Americans are promoting a scheme which has nothing in common with the understandings President Vladimir Putin believes he reached in Anchorage, Alaska, on August 16 with President Donald Trump. In short, a plan of points that are pointless. Click to view.



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By John Helmer, Moscow
  @bears_with

Start with the condition of President Donald Trump’s brain, according to his mouth.  

“Question: Mr. President, could you tell us why you needed to get an MRI? I, I understand that the results were good, but what was it for?

Donald Trump: Because it’s part of my physical. Getting an MRI is very standard. Well, you think I shouldn’t have it? Other people got it. I had an MRI. Here’s what you s- — serious. I had an MRI. The doctor said it was the best result he has ever seen as a doctor. That’s it. But I had an MRI as part of my standard yearly or every w- — I think they do it every two years, but I have the physical every year. And the result was outstanding.

Question: Is it your brain or —

Donald Trump: Uh, I have no idea what they analyzed, but whatever they analyzed, they analyzed it well. And they said that I had as good a result as they’ve ever seen. Now the other thing I took is I took as you know, a, uh, advanced, very advanced test on mental acuity. Because I think a president should have to do that. And as you probably heard, I aced it. I got a perfect score. I got the highest one, I got a perfect score. And the only reason I tell you that is it’s one subject, unlike Biden and others, that you can take off your plan.”  

Now measure the distance which Trump’s legs have been running from his warmaking fronts against Russia in the Ukraine, Germany, India, and Venezuela – and in the latest debate over Gaza peace terms in the United Nations Security Council. Listen to the new podcast with Nima Alkhorshid.   

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By John Helmer, Moscow
  @bears_with

It is just five weeks since President Donald Trump failed to win the Nobel peace prize. The armed resistance of Iran and Venezuela has already forced him to postpone his Plan A – that’s  for regime change by what Trump likes to call his “obliteration force”.  Trump’s Plan B is for regime change by covert operations.  In Kiev, Berlin, Tallinn, Ottawa, and Delhi these are turning out to be just as noisy and as dirty.   

To clean up behind Trump, this news-breaking podcast from Dimitri Lascaris, aired from Montreal on Sunday morning, is double-length, four-ply, and forest-friendly.

Part I, the first 65 minutes, focuses on US plotting to replace Vladimir Zelensky and replace him with others equally bent on continuing the war against Russia; on German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s scheme for making his political party and the German army great again by continuing the war against Russia; and on the media battle for Canadian votes as Prime Minister Mark Carney continues the war against Russia.

Part II, for 30 minutes, opens with the terrorist bombing in Delhi last Monday, the Pakistan directions, the Trump connections, and India’s military options for the days ahead,  as they will be discussed in Moscow on Monday when Russia’s allies gather together in the Shanghai Cooperation Council meeting.

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By John Helmer, Moscow
  @bears_with

Estonian politics are being turned upside down because of a leaked report into the diversion of defence spending.

The timing is not an unlucky coincidence. It is the result of the country’s leaders claiming kudos for leading the NATO alliance in lifting the military proportion of their Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from 3.4% to 5.4%.

This increase was enacted in April when the Estonian government and parliament approved a four-year €2.8 billion additional defence funding bill in order to meet the NATO target dictated by President Donald Trump. The increased spending will lift Estonia from the 19th rank of the global defence/GDP ratio, four ranks behind Poland (4.15% as of 2024  ) and one rank behind the US (3.42%), to lead the NATO member states.  

“I really, from this podium, in this building, want to applaud your leadership on meeting the five percent defense spending target, not years down the road but in all of your countries in 2026,” US Defense Secretary Peter Hegseth announced at a Pentagon meeting with Hanno Pevkur, the Estonian defense minister on July 25; beside Pevkur were his Latvian and Lithuanian counterparts. “It underscores your dedication to the Alliance’s security and sets a very clear example for others to follow.”  

Pevkur replied: “Our meeting today is a testimony to the strong and trusted partnership between the Baltic States and the United States…We stand up for one another and we defend each other when it’s needed. This is what brotherhood in arms truly means.”  

In the Estonian language, that last sentence of Pevkur’s means brother’s hands in each other’s pockets.  

According to official announcements in Tallinn late last month, Pevkur has agreed to spend $4.73 billion on new US HIMARS artillery systems and ammunition.   More than €10 billion ($12 billion) in defence spending is now planned for the four-year period, 2026-2029.  The Estonian media report that “procurement accounts for 37 percent of the budget, ammunition for 25 percent, personnel costs for 14 percent, operating expenses for 13 percent, intelligence and early warning for 3 percent, support for the Defense League [citizen mobilisation] for 3 percent and infrastructure investments for 5 percent.”   

More than half of this total is expected to go directly to the US military-industrial complex and a Ukraine-sized percentage of 10% to 15% return to Estonian middlemen as commissions. US and European military companies are also being invited to invest in new production of weapons and security technology in Estonia itself. “Estonia also plans,” the government says, “to invest €50 million in defence industry and innovation, including the establishment of a Future Capabilities and Innovation Command and a new defence industry park in Pärnu County.”   The list of Russia warfighting allies to supply – sell to Tallin — was published in this Estonian government report, issued before the Trump increase was implemented.     

This is the greatest boondoggle in the history of Estonia since the country pinned its hopes on Adolf Hitler and German military investment between 1941 and 1944.

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By John Helmer, Moscow
  @bears_with

Since Chrystia Freeland (lead image) was dismissed from her Canadian Cabinet ministry on September 16,    she has become the “Special Representative for the Reconstruction of Ukraine.” This is a camouflage uniform.

According to the official filing in parliament on November 5 by the Privy Council Office (PCO) on behalf of Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, Freeland has no staff for her post, no office, no budget, no travel expenses, and a pay cut of $79,700. The Privy Council Office, reporting to the House of Commons, says it has “searched its financial records and did not find any costs, start-up or otherwise, related to the role of the Special Representative for the Reconstruction of Ukraine.”   

As the longest-serving warfighter against Russia in Canadian government, Freeland is now a full-fledged foreign mercenary on the Ukraine battlefield.

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By John Helmer, Moscow
  @bears_with

For the time being, the Trump Administration has put its strategy for regime change by obliteration on hold in Iran and Venezuela, where Russian-backed defences are increasingly  deterring and US voters hostile.  Instead, as Trump has signalled himself, the US is focusing instead on covert operations with the same goal – kill targets, topple resistance, risk no US military casualties, make money.

“Sometimes people have to fight it out a little bit longer,” Trump said last week of the war in the Ukraine as he abandoned his demand that President Vladimir Putin accept an immediate ceasefire.   

“I don’t think we’re going to necessarily ask for a declaration of war,” Trump had said of his campaign against Venezuela on October 23.  “We’re just gonna kill people that are bringing drugs into our country, OK.  We’re gonna kill them. You know, like they’re gonna be, like, dead.”

 “The US is not currently planning to launch strikes inside Venezuela and doesn’t have a legal justification that would support attacks against any land targets right now, according to sources familiar with the briefing conducted by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and an official from the White House’s Office of Legal Counsel.”  

The Trump officials were responding to the joint House and Senate resolution, introduced on October 16, ordering “the removal of United States Armed Forces from hostilities within or against Venezuela that have not been authorized by Congress.”   The text declared as a finding that Trump had issued an “authorization for the Central Intelligence Agency to conduct covert lethal operations within Venezuela”. There was no objection to this,  nor was there a finding that Venezuela did not pose a threat to the US. Instead, the resolution declared that under the war powers provision of the Constitution, Congress should decide “the question of whether United States forces should be engaged in hostilities within or against Venezuela should be answered following a full briefing to Congress and the American public of the issues at stake, a public debate in Congress, and a congressional vote as contemplated by the Constitution.”

Covert operations could continue without any of that, but if land targets were to be attacked, that would require “full briefing” in Congress and the press, public debate, and a vote. If Trump attacked with the naval, air and Marine forces currently in the Caribbean, Congress proposed to stop the money.  

To head off this direct challenge, Rubio, Hegseth,  and a White House lawyer promised to stick to covert operations against President Nicolas Maduro, and restrict military operations to alleged drug-running at sea.   On November 6 the resolution drew 49 Senate votes, but it was defeated by a majority of two, 51 to 49.   

“The Trump administration is seeking a separate legal opinion from the Justice Department that would provide a justification for launching strikes against land targets without needing to ask Congress to authorize military force, though no decisions have been made yet to move forward with an attack inside the country, a US official said. ‘What is true one day may very well not be the next,’ said that US official when discussing the current state of the policy, pointing out that Trump has not decided how he will handle Venezuela.”  Trump was uncharacteristically silent in his press gaggles and tweets after the Senate vote on November 6.
He has reverted to covert operations against “drug cartels”; for details click here   and here.  

This is not the first time in Trump history that he has been compelled to retreat by greater force than he dares to risk engaging directly.  The sustained crowd booing against Trump in Landover, Maryland, on November 9 shows that the smokescreen is also failing. Click to listen.  

In the new podcast with Nima Alkhorshid, the discussion focuses first on Trump’s covert operations goals in Syria, following the Washington visit of acting Syrian President Ahmed Al-Sharaa (Al-Jolani); in the Ukraine,  as threats to the Zelensky regime mount on the battlefield and in the Kiev government itself; and in India, following a terror group bombing in the centre of Delhi, as the Indian Government prepares for President Putin’s visit on December 6.

In the last segment, we discuss the only covert US operation for regime change for which the White House has explicitly apologized*, and then continued to implement – so successfully that no further US intervention has been needed because the government is totally subservient. This is Australia on the 50th anniversary of the November 11, 1975, dismissal of the Australian Labor Party government of Gough Whitlam, followed by the 1977 plot to appoint a new head of state, Governor-General Zelman Cowen.

Click to view and listen: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FGCzc8JpFlg 

For elaboration of the evidence, alternative assessments, and independent sources, read on.

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By John Helmer, Moscow
  @bears_with

Russians are crying over the milk they can no longer afford to buy. The reason is that their income isn’t keeping up with the rapid rise in the price of milk, butter, and cheese.

Elvira Nabiullina (lead image, left), Governor of the Central Bank of Russia (CBR), is to blame.

The explanation, according to the National Association of Milk Producers (Soyuzmoloko) and dairy industry experts, is that Nabiullina’s policy of keeping the CBR’s key interest rate high is driving the economy into loss of demand and supply, falling investment, output and  income, and at the same time rising prices combining altogether into a recession spiral.

“A slight reduction in the interest rate in question will not solve the problems in the industry,” says Sergei Blum, chief executive of Agromilk, publisher of the industry bible Dairy News. “The profitability of milk production has dropped significantly, and the current rate, which is essentially prohibitive, cannot affect this in any way. At a rate of 10%-11%, we will see stagnation in the industry. Recovery is possible only between 5% and 7%. The current level of the key rate has had a very negative impact on the leasing market, as well as on the secondary market of [used] agricultural machinery. Obviously, no one will give much clarity about how the key rate will change — this is not practiced anywhere in the world.”  

In fact, accompanying the October 24 reduction of the key rate to 16.5%, Nabiullina issued CBR forecasts for three years – stagnation this year, and in 2026-27 recession with negative GDP growth rates between 2.5% and 3.5%. “The upward deviation of the Russian economy from a balanced growth path is narrowing,” Nabiullina reported this euphemistically and then admitted the truth. “The Russian economy’s potential and its growth rates will both decline. GDP will be contracting during two years. A significant decline in supply will be fuelling inflation.”  

In the farmyard, at the dairy, and on the grocery store shelves, what this means is the slaughter of more cows, lower production of raw milk, higher processing costs, jumping retail prices, growing stocks of unsold products. They are not combining to reduce price inflation, as Nabiullina insists her monetary policy must do.

Instead, this is the recession which Russia should have, as Nabiullina’s protégée and former first deputy governor of the CBR, Ksenia Yudaeva, has assured the US Treasury and the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) since November of last year, when Nabiullina sent her to Washington to fill Russia’s IMF seat.  In April 2022 the Treasury sanctioned Yudaeva;  Nabiullina wasn’t sanctioned until five months later in September 2022.  Now, however, Yudaeva is the highest ranking Russian Government official to enjoy US sanctions relief.  

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