By John Helmer, Moscow
  @bears_with

The clock at the Tass office in Moscow was reading 14:24 on Tuesday afternoon when Dmitry Peskov, spokesman for President Vladimir Putin, was reported as saying the following about the Gaza plan of President Donald Trump, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and ex-prime minister Tony Blair: “Russia always supports and welcomes any steps by Trump that seek to avert the tragedy that is now unfolding. We want this plan to be realized, so that it may help steer events in the Middle East toward a peaceful path”.    

Two hours later, the Tass clock was reading 16:13 when Peskov told the Tass reporter to add: “If you asked me if Russia is involved in this plan [of Trump on the settlement in the Gaza Strip], no, it is not. There were no signals from the American side on this.”  

Across the city at the Foreign Ministry, the hands on the clock on Maria Zakharova’s wall had moved to 17:24, when having completed all the required sign-offs, the spokesman published the official Ministry response to the Gaza plan: “Donald Trump’s plan provides for a ceasefire in the Palestinian enclave, the release of hostages and all detained persons, as well as the gradual withdrawal of Israeli forces. It also includes lifting the blockade and ensuring free access of humanitarian aid to all those who need it under the auspices of the UN and the International Committee of the Red Cross.”

“The leading Arab Muslim countries have expressed support for the plan. The Palestinian National Authority has confirmed its readiness for cooperating with all partners to shape a comprehensive peace agreement. Prime Minister of Israel Benjamin Netanyahu has publicly welcomed the new US plan. Russia has always called for an immediate ceasefire and an end to bloodshed in Gaza. We believe that any measures and initiatives aimed at this deserve to be supported. We hope that a ceasefire will become sustainable and will ultimately lead to lasting stabilisation in the Palestinian enclave. This will create the necessary conditions for launching comprehensive efforts to rebuild the sector’s infrastructure, which has been almost completely destroyed during the hostilities.”

“It is important that a successful and smooth implementation of this plan should pave the way to the resumption of a constructive dialogue between the Israeli and Palestinian sides on a comprehensive political settlement of all disputed issues on the recognised international legal basis, which provides for the creation of an independent Palestinian state that will live in peace and security with Israel.”  

Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov was out of Moscow in Sochi. He was attending the Kremlin-financed platform known as the Valdai Club.  

He had been told what Peskov announced earlier as the Kremlin line. He had also agreed to the text of Zakharova’s press release. But then, at 17:59 publication time, he was asked: “What is Moscow’s position on Trump’s plan to resolve the situation in Gaza, which was announced on Monday? How do you assess the proposal to establish interim external management with the international participation and the formation of an international contingent for operational deployment in Gaza? Did Moscow receive any signals about the possibility of participating in this contingent? How do you assess the chances of success of this plan as a whole?”

Lavrov replied that, unlike Peskov and the Ministry in Moscow, he wasn’t ready to answer because he wasn’t sure what the plan details were,  who had authored them, what the Arab governments were thinking, and how the Palestinians, including Hamas, would respond. He spoke ironically, which the Ministry signalled by putting some of Lavrov’s phrases in inverted commas and leaving his verbs to be understood to mean their opposite.

“We have not seen this plan. We have only heard comments about its contents. You have now outlined its main provisions. I have heard that this international body, which is intended to ‘temporarily govern Gaza’, is planned to be headed by former British Prime Minister Tony Blair. He himself seems to have already announced this. I reiterate, I am not privy to the details. I do not know what powers he will be granted, nor how the Arab countries view this. I am aware that some of them have already welcomed ‘Donald Trump’s plan’. However, a final assessment can only be made once we know the views of all of Palestine’s neighbours, Israel, the countries of the region, the League of Arab States, the Gulf Cooperation Council, and, above all, the Palestinians themselves. I have heard that representatives of the Palestinian National Authority are not being considered for inclusion in this temporary body, even as observers.”

“Regarding the international security forces. No, we have not been invited to participate. I reiterate, we only became aware of this new plan yesterday. However, I have read that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, commenting on ‘Donald Trump’s plan’ – which was announced following Netanyahu’s visit to Washington – said that the plan is good and should not be altered. He claimed that Hamas and everyone else should agree to it. Among the positive aspects of this plan, he stated that Israel would retain control over security in Gaza. This somewhat contradicts the establishment of international forces, so all the details need to be clarified first.”

A long time ago, living in his Italian exile from Moscow, Maxim Gorky wrote a brief essay called “The Clock”. The point of it is at the beginning: “It is eerie to listen, in the stillness and loneliness of the night, to the beautiful and uniform voice of the clock…How shall we live so as to have the consciousness of not having lived in vain? How shall we live so as not to lose faith and willpower? How live that no second shall pass which is not moved by intellect and feeling? Will the clock never give an answer to that? Oh! this motion without an end! What does the clock say to it?”  

by Editor - Wednesday, October 1st, 2025
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By John Helmer, Moscow
  @bears_with

A week ago on September 23, President Donald Trump called President Vladimir Putin’s military power a “paper tiger”, and declared ”this is the time for Ukraine to act”.

By that he said he meant “to take back their Country in its original form and, who knows, maybe even go further than that!”  

Five days later, the successor president, Vice President J D Vance, explained that deployment on the Ukrainian battlefield by NATO-supplied Tomahawk cruise missiles, with a 2,500-km range,    is the next step he and Trump are considering.

“Russia is really stalled,” Vance claimed,   “The Russian economy is in shambles. The Russians are not gaining much on the battlefield… The Russians have refused to sit down in any bilateral meetings with the Ukrainians. They have refused to sit down in any trilateral meetings with the President…The Russians have got to wake up and accept reality here… About Tomahawks, it’s something the President is going to make the final determination on. What the President is going to do is what’s in the best interest of the United States of America.”   

The scheme, Vance intimated, is to allow NATO member states with Tomahawk batteries – at the moment this means the UK and Germany – to deliver them to Kiev, or for other European states to buy the missiles from the US and send them on. This means that the crews operating the Tomahawk systems in the Ukraine would be British, German, or other Europeans.  “What we’re doing,” Vance said, “is asking the Europeans to buy that weaponry that shows some European skin in the game. I think that gets them really invested in both what’s happening in their own backyard, but also in the peace process that the president has been pushing for, for the last eight months,” Vance said.   

The skins at risk of Russian counterattack, Vance meant but omitted to acknowledge,  would be European, not American.

The Kremlin spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, responded with the obvious followed by a placebo.

“We have heard these statements. We are thoroughly analyzing them. Our military specialists are closely monitoring it.”  “Even if it happens that the United States sends its Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, currently there is no cure-all that could be a game changer on the front lines for the Kiev regime. No magical weapons exist, and Tomahawk or other missiles simply won’t be a game changer.”    

Then Peskov muffled a warning: “The question… is this: who can launch these missiles…? Can only Ukrainians launch them, or do American soldiers have to do that?”   The answer is already obvious – Vance made it plain. The operators of the Tomahawks would be Europeans.  

Peskov’s questions also avoided Vance’s and Trump’s strategic point. They are now aiming to intensify the domestic damage they can inflict deep inside Russian territory – Moscow and St. Petersburg if they can — in the belief this will trigger loss of Russian morale and voter opposition to Putin.  “This war is terrible for their economy,” Vance repeated several times, as has Trump. The Russians, Vance declared, “have to ask themselves how many more people are they willing to lose…for very little military advantage.”

What is happening from the Russian point of view which isn’t public?

The US “understanding” from the Anchorage summit meeting on August 16 is no longer the Russian interpretation as Putin himself first explained it. “Hopefully, the understanding [singular] we have reached will bring us closer to this goal and open up the road to peace in Ukraine,” Putin said at his brief press conference after meeting with Trump. “We see that the US President has a clear idea of what he wants to achieve, that he sincerely cares about his country’s prosperity while showing awareness of Russia’s national interests. I hope that today’s agreements [plural] will become a reference point, not only for resolving the Ukrainian problem but also for resuming the pragmatic business relations between Russia and the United States.”  

Escalation to Tomahawk attacks on the Russia hinterland is also not the “understanding” with the US which the Russian Foreign Ministry announced after Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met at the United Nations with Secretary of State Marco Rubio: “The heads of the foreign offices exchanged opinions on the Ukraine crisis settlement as a follow up to the understandings [plural] reached at the Russia-US summit in Anchorage. The parties have reaffirmed mutual interest in the search for peaceful solutions. Sergey Lavrov emphasised our country’s readiness to adhere to the line developed by the Russian and US leaders in Alaska, including to coordinate efforts with the US side to remove the root causes of the Ukraine conflict. The minister stressed the unacceptability of the schemes intended to protract the conflict promoted by Kiev and some European countries. The parties compared their positions on the entire bilateral agenda including the prospects of restoring their socio-political contacts. They have reaffirmed the importance of using the impetus given by Russian and US presidents to the process of normalising bilateral relations.”

Speaking to Russian reporters, Lavrov then added: “We operate on the premise that everything we have heard from our US colleagues at the top and other levels tells us that they want to help us end this conflict by addressing and eliminating its root causes. There are no other countries in the Western camp that abide by such a position. I have no doubt that the US President is genuinely interested in this outcome. Some people are trying to have influence on him, but that’s another matter…  The 2022 borders are off the table today. What we are now discussing are the borders as enshrined in the Constitution of the Russian Federation.”   

The “reality on the ground”, as Vance and Trump say they understand it on the battlefield, is plainly now not the reality on the ground as the Russian side sees it.  The US is announcing that Russia the paper tiger has lost escalation dominance on the battlefield, and is vulnerable to even greater domestic insecurity than it faced three years ago, when the Special Military Operation began. If that was the “root cause” of the war, as Putin and Lavrov say they have explained to their US counterparts, Trump and Vance are now dismissing “root cause” as the basis for terms to end the war.

When Vance announced that the Tomahawk deployment will be decided “in the interests of the United States of America”, he meant to say that the Russian military and Putin have lost their power of deterrence.

A Moscow source in a position to know says the General Staff will convince the President on the measures required to prove the Americans wrong. “I believe the Russians will secure victory using the Oreshniki rather than a massive ground offensive. But there is also a build-up many of us can tell. That is why Americans and Europeans are getting very nervous, threatening Russians with a direct confrontation unless they back off.” 

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by Editor - Monday, September 29th, 2025
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By John Helmer, Moscow
  @bears_with

The propaganda war to make pinprick drone attacks on Russian oil refineries and oil storage terminals appear to be destroying the Russian economy, and Ukrainian forces winning the war, came to its climax last week, on September 23, when an announcement was issued in President Donald Trump’s name.

“When the people living in Moscow,” the tweet said, “and all of the Great Cities, Towns, and Districts all throughout Russia, find out what is really going on with this War, the fact that it’s almost impossible for them to get Gasoline through the long lines that are being formed, and all of the other things that are taking place in their War Economy, where most of their money is being spent on fighting Ukraine, which has Great Spirit, and only getting better, Ukraine would be able to take back their Country in its original form and, who knows, maybe even go further than that! Putin and Russia are in BIG Economic trouble, and this is the time for Ukraine to act.”  

Trump kept repeating his jingle to everyone he met.   He told French President Emmanuel Macron that “it could be that Russia is a paper tiger. I don’t know what they are, but three and a half years of fighting and killing everybody and killing 7,000 people a week for nothing, for nothing.”   

Two days later in the White House Trump said: “I’m very dissatisfied with what Russia is doing and what President Putin is doing. I haven’t liked it at all. He’s killing people for no reason whatsoever. And they are doing — they are doing very poorly considering they — they have put it all out on the line. They are — their economy is going to hell. They’re bombing the hell out of everything, and they’re picking up very little territory, if any. In fact, they’re losing some territory. So uh, I think it’s been very bad for the reputation of Russia.”  

In their meeting at the UN immediately following after Trump’s tweet, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov ignored what had been published. Rubio’s communiqué said he  had “reiterated President Trump’s call for the killing to stop and the need for Moscow to take meaningful steps toward a durable resolution of the Russia-Ukraine war.”  Lavrov said they had “exchanged views on the settlement of the Ukrainian crisis in the development of the understanding reached during the Russian-American summit in Anchorage. Reciprocal interest in finding peaceful solutions has been confirmed.”  

The reference to the “understanding” between the presidents at Anchorage was the Russian reminder that Trump appeared not to be remembering what he said he understood five weeks ago.

 Later, in his exchange with reporters, Lavrov was asked “given the ever-changing policy of American colleagues, how does Russia plan to work with the United States?” Lavrov confirmed “this can be called an ever-changing, flexible policy”. But he played down the significance of Trump’s “style of doing business in the international arena, as well as at home.”  “It will be foolish not to use this circumstance to implement any joint mutually beneficial projects – whether in the energy sector, in space, anywhere. And in those cases (they are the majority), when the interests of Russia and the United States do not coincide, the main thing is to prevent it from escalating into a clash, into confrontation…When some of our European counterparts turn diplomacy either into the ‘court’ of their ‘comrades’ from Washington to keep them ‘playing the war of Biden’ or replacing diplomacy with sanctions – this is a hopeless path. It has no success. But an honest dialogue on any issues – we see the readiness for this by the United States – we are also ready for it. At the same time, diplomatic comments can be very different.”

The Russian state media have followed Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov in treating Trump’s claims as having been prompted by others.  “President Trump’s statements were made after talking with Zelensky,” Peskov told Tass. “It seems, Zelensky’s opinions rubbed off on him. This view is in stark contrast with our understanding of the current state of affairs.”   Peskov added: “”President Trump has never hidden his intention to ensure the economic interests of the United States. The simplest thing is to force the entire world to buy American oil at a higher price and American liquefied natural gas at a higher price.”  

On one point, however, there is no doubt — there has been a shortage of automobile fuel – gasoline, petrol, essence, бензин – at Russia’s retail pumps, especially in the southwestern regions of the country. There is a correspondingly sharp rise in the trading price of the fuel, both auto petrol and diesel at the St. Petersburg International Mercantile Exchange (SPIMEX).  The lead images chart the data which confirm the shortage and the price rise.  

In wartime, the Russian state media cannot be expected to add fuel, or the shortage of fuel, to the US and Ukrainian fire. According to Alexander Novak, the former energy minister and now deputy prime minister in charge of the energy sector, the fuel shortage is normal for this time of the year when the balance between supply and demand is “difficult. There is a small shortage of petroleum products, which is covered by the reserves.”  

The Carnegie Endowment’s Russia Eurasia Centre, a Washington propaganda source now based in Berlin, is more careful. “Right now, the situation looks challenging but manageable”, the think tank reported on August 26.    “Most of the refineries that have been hit by Ukrainian drones continue to produce gasoline, albeit in reduced quantities. It has also been possible to redirect gasoline from unaffected regions, and some of the deficit has been eased by tapping state reserves. …There is still a long way to go before the transport, agriculture, and industrial sectors—or, most importantly, the army—experience any significant fuel shortages…It’s important to remember that a lot of Russian vehicles and military equipment run on diesel, not gasoline, and Russia has a diesel surplus. Accordingly, the sort of full-scale fuel crisis that could end up impairing the functioning of the economy—or the army—is still a long way off.     On top of this, annual gasoline production in Russia exceeds domestic demand by up to 20 percent, while diesel production is more than double what is needed. Even if the damaged refineries (which account for about 20 percent of primary refining capacity) stopped functioning entirely, the resulting deficit would be small.”

The truth of the fuel position is acknowledged by Russian sources. But it’s more complicated than the propaganda suggests, explains Igor Yushkov, a leading expert on Russian energy policy at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation (FNEB) and the National Energy Security Fund (NWF). This does not mean it is vulnerable to US and Ukrainian escalation, as Trump is implying.  

“Russia has enough reserves of petroleum to compensate for the attacks on refineries,” Yushkov said in interview last Friday. “The problem is the logistics.  Yes, Ukraine is still actively hitting our fuel bases. They began to actively hit refineries in August, when the Russian-American negotiations began – in order to disrupt them literally, they intensified their strikes. And they’ve been hitting the storages all these years. And in this regard, the border regions have all suffered quite a lot. Previously, you just had to take the train from the refinery to the storage facility by rail, unload the fuel cargo there, and from there you take it by lorry to the gas stations. Now the logistics have lengthened. We need more tanker trucks. The supply line is getting longer.  For example, in the current conditions of Crimea, it is rather 2-3 weeks at best, because there is also a delay in delivery. Relatively speaking, if they only bought it now, then the fuel will be shipped from the refinery after a certain period, then they will need to deliver it directly to gas stations in the Crimea. That is taking several weeks.”

“The current situation with the production of petroleum products is ambiguous. Although the total production in the country remains at an acceptable level — 50% of diesel is exported, 50% to the domestic market — there is tension in the gasoline market. An increase in crude oil exports and a reduction in refining at some refineries may have led to a decrease in fuel production in August compared to last year. The ban on gasoline exports introduced in August  has two consequences. On the one hand, it helps to lower prices on the stock exchange by creating surpluses on the domestic market. On the other hand, it can stimulate the growth of retail prices, as companies seek to compensate for lost export profits. The long-term maintenance of the ban is problematic, since excess fuel will require either a reduction in processing or the resumption of exports.”

“About the shortage of petroleum on gas stations — first of all, the shortage of petroleum is caused by rising prices on the oil products exchange due to a reduction of almost 50% in payments to oil companies from the state budget. Payments on the so-called damper — a reverse oil excise tax   – have been reduced. The damper is a mechanism that compensates oil companies and a portion is paid back from the budget. It compensates for the difference between how much an oil product costs on the foreign market and how much the government wants to see it on the domestic market. That is, once a year, the state sets a certain price for gasoline and diesel, and, accordingly, if the price in foreign markets is higher, then the state pays oil companies. Prices for 95 and 92 gasoline are breaking records on the stock exchange, but oil refineries cannot raise the cost of fuel at gas stations after that – the Federal Antimonopoly Service monitors compliance of price increases. Therefore, the gas stations, in order not to operate at a loss, stop selling gasoline and wait for prices on the stock exchange to stabilize. And fuel problems are mostly arising at the independent gas stations which buy their gasoline only on the stock exchange. The big oil production companies don’t have such problems.”

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by Editor - Monday, September 29th, 2025
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By John Helmer, Moscow
  @bears_with

“Things will get far, far worse before they begin to get better. The prevailing ideas that shaped every era of America always became stronger, more reckless and more oblivious to risk and disaster as they approached their apogee. What has happened before will happen again. Catastrophe approaches. It will be the worst in American history. But it will not be the end of the world.”

Watch the new podcast from Montreal with Martin Sieff, hosted by Matthew Ehret:   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gcMDtK3I34I 

Agree or disagree, here is the evidence in Martin’s book.  

by Editor - Sunday, September 28th, 2025
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By John Helmer, Moscow
  @bears_with

Tuesday was an unremarkable day for President Donald Trump — except for the cuts in  electricity for his escalator at the United Nations (UN) building and then for his teleprompter at the General Assembly podium. “Absolutely sabotage”, Trump announced after thinking about it for twenty-four hours.  

In his UN script and then his answers to reporters on meeting Vladimir Zelensky for six minutes, Trump repeated factoids, slogans, and jingles. “Frankly, Ukraine is doing a very good job of stopping this very large army. It’s pretty amazing. You know, this is a war that should have ended in three days, four days. People said it was going to be very quick and you got to hand it to the Ukrainian soldiers and everybody involved…Russia doesn’t look very distinguished having taken three and a half years now, right? It’s about three and a half years of very hard fighting. And it looks like it’s not going to end for a long time.”  

He also repeated last week’s line that “in the event that Russia is not ready to make a deal to end the war, then the United States is fully prepared to impose a very strong round of powerful tariffs… But for those tariffs to be effective, European nations would have to join us in adopting the exact same measures… they have to immediately cease ALL energy purchases from Russia.”  

Trump hasn’t said — isn’t saying — what his deal terms are for President Vladimir Putin or what he doesn’t accept in Putin’s terms.  Trump isn’t sure what to do next, he acknowledged to a reporter asking about Putin — “I’ll let you know in about a month from now.” And on US security guarantees for the Ukraine — “that’s later down the road, we’ll be talking about that. Hopefully, we’ll be in a position to talk about that a little bit later on. It’s a little bit too early to answer that question.”  

After Trump said that, the White House posted a tweet in the president’s name announcing something he hasn’t said before. The US, the tweet said, will support and arm a combination of Ukrainian and NATO forces for a new eastward offensive, not only across the Donbass, Novorossiya, and Crimea but also into the Russian hinterland.

“Ukraine, with the support of the European Union, is in a position to fight and WIN all of Ukraine back in its original form. With time, patience, and the financial support of Europe and, in particular, NATO, the original Borders from where this War started, is [sic] very much an option…Ukraine would be able to take back their Country in its original form and, who knows, maybe even go further than that! Putin and Russia are in BIG Economic trouble, and this is the time for Ukraine to act. In any event, I wish both Countries well. We will continue to supply weapons to NATO for NATO to do what they want with them. Good luck to all!”  

Former President Dmitry Medvedev said this was fantasizing. “Trump is not like that! I have no doubt—he will return. He always returns. Probably in a couple of days, he will suggest [Zelensky] sign a surrender. Or fly to Mars with Musk, whom he pardoned. Or do something else very important that will allow him to claim a Nobel Prize. The main thing is to frequently and radically change your point of view on various issues. And everything will be fine. This is the essence of successful state governance through social networks. And, as they say, thank you for your attention to this subject!”  

US and NATO plans   have estimated that a single army corps for such an offensive would require at least 1,400 tanks, 2,000 infantry fighting vehicles, 700 artillery pieces, and at least 50,000 troops. Russian estimates are that several corps would be required for such an offensive capable of attacking the Russian lines at several different points simultaneously, plus air cover, naval support from the Black Sea, and secure supply lines running from Romania, Moldova, and Poland.

Trump told Macron at the UN: “it could be that Russia is a paper tiger… I don’t know what they are, but three and a half years of fighting and killing everybody and killing 7,000 people a week for nothing, for nothing…But most of you have seen the recent statement I put out a little while ago and I’m glad you got it. But I feel that way. I really do feel that way. Let them get their land back.”  

Them, not us, he meant as Macron nodded slightly.   

But was this another ally-reversal ploy (ARP) like the European oil cutoff condition which the Trump Administration knows the Europeans will not agree to? Was the White House author of Trump’s new tweet saying that if the Europeans and Ukrainians can assemble several hundred thousand men to attack Russia, the US will take their money for the weapons —  win or lose at their cost, US profit?  

Trump conceded at the UN that he needs electricity to make his claims and that it’s sabotage when his power is cut.

The Russian General Staff has been demonstrating this week a new round of the electric war campaign to make the same point.

(more…)

by Editor - Thursday, September 25th, 2025
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By Anonymous, City of London*

By John Helmer, Moscow
  @bears_with

Who pulls the plug on a nation’s credit? 

For decades, Barclays Capital has been a pillar of the City of London’s support for Israeli government debt as one of the twelve primary dealers whose role is to finance the debts of the Israeli state and funnel international capital to Tel Aviv.

No longer. New figures reveal that in the midst of the famine stage of the Gaza genocide, and the mounting global outcry against the Israeli Government, Barclays has plummeted to near-bottom of the league table of international banks accepting to buy, hold, market, and trade the foundation stones of the Israeli economy, Israel’s bonds.

This isn’t a stumble on the big bank’s part; it’s a strategic retreat. The numbers suggest Barclays has slashed its purchases at auction to a trickle, potentially diverting hundreds of millions in capital away from the Israeli war machine. The question is no longer about profit margins  or Zionist enthusiasm in the boardroom—it’s about reputational survival. Barclays, a bellwether of the British establishment and Anglo-American banking, is voting with its balance sheet, and its verdict is a blow to Israel’s financial capacity to win its long war against the Palestinians, the Arabs, Iran and Turkey.

(more…)

by Editor - Wednesday, September 24th, 2025
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By John Helmer, Moscow
  @bears_with

Yesterday afternoon at the Kremlin meeting of the Security Council, President Vladimir Putin proposed to extend the current strategic nuclear weapons limitations of the New START Treaty expiring in February 2026, for one more year into 2027. This is the time Putin is giving President Donald Trump to choose between his Golden Dome escalation in space or new terms of nuclear deescalation by treaty with Russia.

“Particular attention,” Putin declared, “must be directed towards US plans to expand strategic components of its missile defence system, including preparations for the deployment of interceptors in outer space. We believe that the practical implementation of such destabilising measures could nullify our efforts to maintain the status quo in the field of strategic offensive arms. We will respond appropriately in this case.”  

“In order to prevent the emergence of a new strategic arms race and to preserve an acceptable degree of predictability and restraint, we consider it reasonable to maintain at this turbulent time the status quo established under New START. Accordingly, Russia is prepared to continue observing the treaty’s central quantitative restrictions for one year after February 5, 2026.”

This isn’t Putin’s first offer of a timeout for Trump.

On October 16, 2020,  Putin had announced “to extend the [START] Treaty now in effect unconditionally for at least a year in order to have a chance to hold substantive talks on all the parameters of problems that are regulated by treaties of this kind, lest we leave our countries and all nations of the world with a vested interest in maintaining strategic stability without such a fundamental document as the Strategic Offensive Arms Limitation Treaty.”  

Trump rejected that offer before he lost the election the following month.   

President Joseph Biden then accepted it and on February 3, 2021, the State Department and Foreign Ministry exchanged papers extending the New START terms for five years until 2026.  

Putin’s statement of yesterday is his explicit reply to Trump’s announcement of Golden Dome four months ago, on May 20. “There’s never been anything like this,” Trump said. “This is something that’s going to be very protective. I think you can rest assured there’ll be nothing like this. Nobody else is capable of building it either.”  

According to Trump, the new Golden Dome system – to be part-paid by Canada, he added – “will integrate with our existing defence capabilities and should be fully operational before the end of my term. So we’ll have it done in about three years [2028]. Once fully constructed, the Golden Dome will be capable of intercepting missiles even if they are launched from other sides of the world and even if they are launched from space, and we will have the best system ever built. As you know, we helped Israel with theirs and it was very successful and now we have technology that’s even far advanced from that, but including hypersonic missiles, ballistic missiles and advanced cruise missiles, all of them will be knocked out of the air.”

“We will truly be completing the job that President Reagan started 40 years ago, forever ending the missile threat to the American homeland and the success rate is very close to 100 percent, which is incredible when you think of it, you’re shooting bullets out of the air. I’m also pleased to report that the One Big, Beautiful Bill will include $25 billion for the Golden Dome to help construction get underway”.  

Trump was asked by a reporter: “Have you addressed Russia’s ventures in space with a space based nuclear weapon and told Putin to stop in your conversations with him?” Trump replied: “We haven’t discussed it. But at the right time we will.”

Putin has just called time. Trump has seventeen months.

(more…)

by Editor - Wednesday, September 24th, 2025
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By John Helmer, Moscow
  @bears_with

President Donald Trump (lead image*) isn’t making the major domestic or foreign policy decisions of his administration.  

Stephen Miller, the deputy chief of staff at the White House, is directing the militarization of domestic policymaking and propaganda; the Central Intelligence Agency and Pentagon are executing the foreign operations against Russia, China, Iran, Palestine, Yemen, Venezuela; Howard Lutnick and Scott Bessent, the Commerce and Treasury Secretaries, are directing the trade war schemes. Trump’s tweets, some directly authored by Miller, follow their action, stamping presidential approval after the event. Trump’s press remarks — staged in small bursts in front of media prompters — create the appearance that Trump is running the show. The show, yes; the operations, no.

To patch over the gap between what Trump’s men are doing and what Trump says he is doing, the president repeats catchwords, slogans, jingles: “I am disappointed in Putin”; “if Russia’s not selling oil, they have no choice but to settle”; “if Europe did something with respect to China, I think China would probably maybe force an end to the war”; “the United States has been a sucker long enough in the world in terms of trade. Now, we’re doing unbelievably well, and we’re making more money than we’ve ever made”; “I actually said, Charlie [Kirk], someday I think you have a good chance of being president. I think you will be president, maybe”;  “the King of Saudi Arabia, a great gentleman — great gentleman, you all know him. He said, sir, your country was dead one year ago and now you have the hottest country anywhere in the world and it’s true.”

Pressed to agree with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer on warfighting strategy against Russia, Trump was unable to say what he wants from President Vladimir Putin, what terms he expects Putin to accept,  and what he will do if he won’t: “he’s let me down, he’s really let me down… He has let me down. I mean, he’s killing many people and he’s losing more people than he’s killing. I mean, frankly, the Russian soldiers are being killed at a higher rate than the Ukrainian soldiers. But, yeah, he’s let me down, I don’t like to see — it’s death. You know, it doesn’t affect the United States;” and then “Very simply, if the price of oil comes down, Putin’s going to drop out, he’s going to have no choice. He’s going to drop out of that war.”   

As Trump flew back to Washington from the UK, a prompted reporter asked: “is it time for a ceasefire to come?” Trump didn’t know what he will do next.  Instead, he replied: “Doesn’t feel like it. But at the right time, if I have to do it, it’ll be harsh.” The operation will follow; Trump’s posturing will come after.

Since Trump’s men understand this is how Trump is deciding policy retroactively, and both the NATO allies and the Kremlin understand the same thing, it is everybody’s calculation to compel Trump’s acquiescence by forcing the action pre-emptively leaving him no alternative, and presenting the successful outcome of their operations in picture-book briefings which combine shock and flattery. Trump is the first president in US history to sign written decision memoranda after the options have been pre-empted. He cannot remember what they were because he hasn’t read the papers.

Listen to the new podcast with Dimitri Lascaris on Reason2Resist revealing what Trump’s papers are saying.

Also revealed — what Canada’s prime minister Mark Carney doesn’t want known about his dismissal of Chrystia Freeland and her plan to retake the Canadian prime ministry if she, her US, Ukrainian, and Polish allies, and long-time financier George Soros can achieve their 2028 plan.

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by Editor - Tuesday, September 23rd, 2025
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By John Helmer, Moscow
  @bears_with

In a media blitz this week, Yulia Navalnaya (lead image) has issued a video call on journalists to investigate her fresh allegations that Alexei Navalny was poisoned to death in his Russian prison on February 16, 2024. The anti-Russian media in the NATO capitals have rallied to report the claims.  So far, however, none of the evidence Navalanya claims to be holding, and which she cites in her appeal,  has been presented for independent viewing, authentication, or forensic expertise.

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by Editor - Thursday, September 18th, 2025
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By John Helmer, Moscow
  @bears_with

Chrystia Freeland’s final leap at political power in her 12-year attempt to rule Canada ended yesterday when she fell flat on her face.  

Prime Minister Mark Carney, whose push has proved more kinetic than Freeland’s jump,  allowed this to be understood when he offered Freeland the less than face-saving post of reconstructing the Ukraine which her warfighting campaign against Russia has all but destroyed. The cost to Canada of this destruction since the Special Military Operation began in February 2022 has been C$22 billion, including about C$13 billion in loans which the Kiev regime cannot repay but which are being serviced from the interest earned on Russian assets seized by the NATO allies.  

Freeland’s ouster was so rushed, there was no time for her to explain what the hurry was in her departure, nor for Carney to prepare what Freeland would be doing as his special envoy to the Ukraine without any staff or diplomatic rank.  

In his official release, Carney appeared not to know that Freeland is resigning her parliamentary seat.

According to Carney’s announcement,   Freeland had “helped to secure historic trade negotiations, guide the response to a global pandemic, complete early learning and child care agreements across Canada, and…remove all federal barriers to internal trade.” Not a word about the priorities of  Freeland’s career, war against Russia and war against China. “I have asked Chrystia to serve as Canada’s new Representative for the Reconstruction of Ukraine,” Carney said, “in addition to her responsibilities as a Member of Parliament.”

Carney is believed to have authorized press leaks ahead of his cabinet meeting on Tuesday to reveal Freeland was resigning her combined portfolio of internal trade and transport. In the rush, Carney took several hours before deciding to split the portfolios and assign them to different individuals.   

After the cabinet meeting Freeland avoided the press. Returning to her office, she drafted the social media post of a letter which she addressed, not to the prime minister, but to “dear neighbours, dear Canadians.” She then announced: “I do not intend to run in the next federal election.”  As her reason for the exit, Freeland claimed she “is not leaving to spend more time with my family or because the burden of elected office is too heavy to bear.” Instead, “after twelve fulfilling years in public life, I know that now is the right time for me to make way for others and to seek fresh changes for myself.”

Freeland had her 57^th birthday last month.

A Canadian source in a position to know commented that there have been growing policy differences between Carney and Freeland. “Carney has signaled his willingness to lower tariffs on Chinese electric vehicle (EV) imports in order to secure Chinese cooperation on their tariffs on Canadian canola. Freeland is recognized in Beijing as a China-hater who, as we know, made sabotaging Canada’s relationship with Beijing a top priority.”

Canola is Canada’s most valuable field crop and farm export, with farm cash receipts of C$12.9 billion in 2024. China had been importing about two-thirds of the Canadian canola crop until Beijing imposed a 100% tariff on canola oil and canola meal in March, and then a 76% tariff on canola seed in August.  This was retaliation against a series of hostile Canadian political and trade attacks on China, culminating in August 2024 in a 100% tariff on EV imports and a 25% tariff on imported Chinese steel and aluminium.  

Freeland’s “past behaviour”, said the source, “displays that she’s not at all trustworthy, let alone capable of putting the government’s goals in front of her own ambitions. Other members of cabinet didn’t hide their dislike of her from Carney. She has the reputation of blowing up cabinet meetings with clumsy, hysterical attempts to run everyone else’s business. That has threatened Carney. Freeland then underestimated his ruthlessness in getting rid of her.”

Beginning with the first reports in 2017 of Freeland’s grandfather’s career as a German military collaborator in World War II — spy, propagandist and genocide profiteer — to Freeland’s plotting with Biden Administration officials to replace Justin Trudeau as prime minister, the archive of DwB stories on Freeland has reached 82.   An album of the Freeland cartoons has been published in The Complete Dances with Bears Comic Book,  Chapter 5.

Here’s a selection at their original links for a keepsake of Freeland’s passing, and for the one thing she has been incapable of since she first arrived in Moscow as a journalist thirty years ago – laughter.

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by Editor - Thursday, September 18th, 2025
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