By John Helmer, Moscow
  @bears_with

Exaggerating the true fact to mean the false factoid is SOP (standard operating procedure) in information warfare. It’s to be expected from President Donald Trump (lead image, right) and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (left) and their intelligence chiefs (centre), military officers, and media supporters.

The truest of the facts in the war so far are arithmetic: (1) that the clock is showing five days and nights long; (2) that there is no lessening in the tempo of the Iranian barrages against Israel; (3)  that the Israeli counts of interceptions and target strikes represent less than 5% of US and Israeli estimates of Iran’s drone and missile stocks before the war.

There is more arithmetic. If Russia, China, and North Korea aim to re-supply Iran, there is no sign yet of increased shipborne deliveries from Astrakhan, Mahachkala and Olya, the Russian ports on the Caspian Sea, or from Turkmenbashi, the main port of Turkmenistan on the Caspian.     If President Vladimir Putin, President Xi jinping, and Kim Jong Un have agreed in secret to assist the Iranian side, then their deliveries are likely to travel by air and rail into Turkmenistan first, and then by road across the border at Sarakhs into Iran. For the time being, the reports at Sarakhs say “light traffic” and “currently no alerts”.  

Conclusion from these facts: Israel’s first shock-and-awe strikes have failed to produce a significant loss of Iran’s military capacities and political will to continue the war until Israel loses its capacities and will. Consequence of conclusion: if shock-and-awe fails, then schlock-and-flaw follows. Schlock is New York Yiddish for badly made merchandise, cheap junk.

This was demonstrated by Trump’s airplane remarks as he headed into Washington the night before his June 18 Situation Room session. Asked what end of war terms he is planning for Iran, he said: “An end. A real end, not a ceasefire. An end…[Question: So something that would be permanent?] Yeah, or — or, uh, giving up entirely…Certainly possible that they would give up. That’s possible.”  

This is the schlock. For analysis of the flaw in the US-Israel war plan, click to listen to the new podcast with Nima Alkhorshid and Ray McGovern.    

The AI source for fact-checking all media, ChatGPT, was asked what Russian aircraft and other military supplies have landed in Iran since June 13. The answer: “As of June 18, 2025, there have been no confirmed reports of Russian aircraft deliveries to Iran since June 13. However, several significant military aircraft transfers from Russia to Iran were reported earlier in 2025, including:  Sukhoi Su-35 Fighter Jets: Iran reportedly received an initial batch of Su-35 aircraft from Russia, with deliveries possibly occurring in knock-down kit form. These advanced multirole fighters are intended to replace aging U.S.-made aircraft in Iran’s fleet . Attack Helicopters: Iran has confirmed the receipt of Mi-28 attack helicopters from Russia, enhancing its close air support capabilities . Yak-130 Trainer Aircraft: The Yak-130, a light combat and advanced trainer aircraft, has been delivered to Iran, potentially serving as a precursor to more advanced Russian jets in the Iranian Air Force.”

And what of other military supplies from Russia?  “As of June 18, 2025, there are no confirmed reports of new military supplies from Russia to Iran since June 13. However, several developments have occurred that may influence future military cooperation between the two nations… Suspension of Iranian Weapons Supplies to Russia: On June 14, Iran announced the suspension of all weapons supplies to Russia. This decision includes halting the export of Shahed drone components, such as Mado MD-550 piston engines and Tolue micro-jets, which were previously used in the production of drones for Russian military operations in Ukraine.”

From China, ChatGPT reports “since June 13, 2025, there have been no publicly confirmed reports of new military supplies from China to Iran.” It is unclear to ChatGPT what has become of Iran’s order “of thousands of tons of ammonium perchlorate, a key component in solid rocket propellant, from China. These shipments, expected to arrive in the coming months, could produce up to 800 missiles.” There is no report of whether an Israeli sabotage operation at Bandar Abbas on April 25, this year, destroyed more than a thousand tonnes of sodium  perchlorate stored at the port; the chemical is used to manufacture the rocket fuel.  

From North Korea, ChatGPT says, “as of June 18, 2025, there are no confirmed reports of new military supplies from North Korea to Iran since June 13. However, the longstanding military collaboration between the two nations continues to be a subject of concern for international security analysts. Historically, North Korea has been a significant supplier of military technology to Iran, including missile components and artillery systems.”

CASPIAN SEA TRAFFIC BETWEEN RUSSIAN, TURKMEN AND IRANIAN PORTS – NO MOVEMENT BETWEEN RUSSIA AND IRAN

Source: https://www.ships.com.ua/en/maps/caspian-sea/ 

USAF REFUELLING TANKERS MOVE FROM THEIR EUROPEAN BASES SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS SYRIA, IRAQ AND IRAN

“Yesterday [June 16], we tracked over 30 tankers moving from the USA to Europe, landing at bases including Prestwick, Morón, Aviano, Ramstein, and Souda Bay.Until now, none of these tankers had moved. However, about an hour ago [midday June 17], several aircraft (Boeing KC-46A and KC-135R/T) took off from their respective bases and headed southeast…At the moment, we are tracking around a dozen tankers in flight, with others taking off in the last few minutes. As we had anticipated, their final destination appears to be the Middle East — we’ll see where they eventually position themselves…Among the most visible movements, a group of at least 12 F-35A Lightning II fighters (c/s TABOR) departed RAF Lakenheath (UK) heading toward the Middle East. While there is no official confirmation, the scale of the aerial refueling effort strongly suggests that additional fighter aircraft, most likely F-15s, may have also been involved in this operation. Air-to-air refueling (AAR) took place over the northern Tyrrhenian Sea and—more intensively—over the Ionian Sea east of Sicily, with tankers forming prolonged holding patterns to support the transiting fighters. After completing their missions, part of the tanker fleet returned to their European bases, while a second group continued eastward, likely to forward-deployed positions in the Middle East. These aircraft are no longer visible via open-source tracking platforms, indicating that their transponders have been turned off or that they have entered coverage gaps. Given the scale and logistics of this deployment, it is possible that additional waves of fighters and support aircraft may follow in the coming days as the U.S. continues to reinforce its presence in the region amid heightened tensions.” https://www.itamilradar.com/2025/06/17/somethings-on-the-move/ 

by Editor - Thursday, June 19th, 2025