By John Helmer, Moscow
@bears_with
There has been breaking news since the podcasts with Dimitri Lascaris and Nima Alkhorshid analysing the telephone agreement on Russian diesel shipments to the US between President Vladimir Putin and President Donald Trump.
The diesel dealmaking had been under way for at least three weeks before the terms reached Putin and Trump to decide on Friday evening, Moscow time, October 9. Read more.
The podcasts followed on Saturday. Click to view or listen to Reason2Resist recorded at 9 am Moscow time, Saturday. Then live from midnight Moscow time, Dialogue Works.
Subsequently, it has been discovered and reported that a shipment of 36,000 metric tons of diesel had been loaded on the Minerva Zen, a Greek-owned and flagged tanker, in St Petersburg, which then set sail into the Atlantic in the direction of the east coast of the US, on September 22. That was seventeen days before Trump and Putin (lead image, right) reportedly concluded their deal for staged diesel shipments, commencing with a target of 300,000 tonnes in the month of October.
The Minerva Zen, according to maritime trackers, was scheduled to arrive at Wilmington, North Carolina, on Sunday evening, local time, October 11. Last year, the vessel had been carrying Russian petroleum products to Brazil. It is unclear whether Brazil was its original destination when it left St. Petersburg, and if it had received a diversion order from the Kremlin. It is also unclear who authorized the vessel to load and leave with diesel on September 22 when the Kremlin’s ban on diesel exports, introduced on July 8, was still in effect.
It is reported that Kirill Dmitriev (lead image, left), Putin’s special negotiator with Steven Witkoff (lead image, left), Jared Kushner, the Trump family, and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has been negotiating terms of sanctions waivers for Russian crude oil and petroleum product exports for several months — unsuccessfully. However, during Dmitriev’s trip to New York in September they negotiated terms of an agreement on a diesel fuel waiver for Trump to discuss with Putin on Friday. When precisely the terms were agreed, and when the Minerva Zen was ordered into Wilmington port, aren’t known yet.
Dmitriev met Witkoff and Kushner in New York on September 29, Tass reported. He then went to Washington where he held “a series of meetings…including with US Treasury and Energy Department officials, sources familiar with the talks told TASS. They discussed Russian-US economic cooperation.”
By then the Minerva Zen was already one week at sea, sailing at an average speed of less than 2 knots.
On September 25, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov had said that a deal trading US sanctions relief of Russian diesel for a Black Sea and energy infrastructure ceasefire was unacceptable to Russian negotiators. “If we are talking about saturating international markets with Russian diesel fuel, about export ban lifting, it is not enough to simply provide for domestic needs, diesel fuel reserves, and open diesel fuel exports. The safety of navigation in the Black Sea should be concurrently provided. But even that is not enough. For international markets to be saturated, the diesel should come there unhindered, that is, without any sanctions, without any restrictions, and so on. Therefore, only a comprehensive solution is possible here.”
The Minerva Zen’s diesel cargo represents just 12% of the volume Trump has said has been agreed with Putin for the month of October. Yury Ushakov, another of the Kremlin negotiations with Witkoff and Kushner, told reporters after the Friday call “I am afraid I cannot fully satisfy your curiosity, colleagues, by revealing all the details of the specific issues discussed by the two presidents.”
Dmitriev has tweeted in celebration of Trump’s terms and of himself: “President Trump’s peacemaking efforts and clarity give a strong impetus to PEACE.” “In 2020, Presidents Putin and Trump jointly stabilized oil prices and markets. Today, they continue their work. The diesel supply agreement showcases the power of economic cooperation between Russia and the US and its benefits to people and the world. Cooperation will prevail.” “President Trump joins the many who believe that Ukraine needs leadership actually focused on peace, not Zelensky’s warmongering: ‘It’s time for Ukraine to get a new president.’ Iconic and historic.”
Peskov responded to the announcement of the diesel deal which Witkoff and Kushner had discussred with Ukrainian officials in Miami on Friday, just before the presidential telcon. “ ‘We know that they are holding talks with the Ukrainians in the United States today. There allegedly are some comprehensive plans and ideas for a settlement. If these are indeed discussed in Miami, and if the American negotiators deem it necessary to share them in Moscow, then, of course, come on over,’ he added.”
The day before, Peskov had dismissed proposals from the Indian foreign minister for an “energy ceasefire” as “piecemeal”. “We have also repeatedly said at various levels that we favor a comprehensive solution rather than a piecemeal one, a solution that would lead to a lasting settlement for many, many years, for decades.”
From maritime industry sources, it is now certain the Minerva Zen’s cargo will be discharged on Monday and Tuesday of this week at the fuel terminal in Wilmington owned by Jared Donnelly and his family. Donnelly has been rewarded by substantial donations to the Trump campaigns by the appointment of Donnelly as the US Ambassador to New Zealand.
In the meantime, Russian and Ukrainian sources have reported that there was a Ukrainian attack with more than 50 drones on a Russian oil loading terminal in Rostov region on Saturday evening, several hours after the presidents had spoken.
The next evening, Sunday, the Ukrainian attack involved more than 900 drones on Russian targets, but reportedly no refineries or other energy infrastructure. In Vladimir, the electric, heat and water supply was disrupted, and a third data centre of Yandex (previously hit in the Ryazan and Kaluga regions) was also attacked. In Lysychansk, 2 civilians were killed and 13 others were injured. There were fires on the territory of the airport in Sochi; also the wreckage of the drone fell on the territory of private homes and hotels in the area. There were no casualties.”
Over the same Sunday evening, the Russian operations struck at “8 regions of Ukraine at night. In 4 districts of Kiev, emergency shutdowns were introduced after Russian strikes. In the Buchansky district, the warehouses of the Synthesis Group were burned by the Geran-5 strikes. The Tenet data centre in Odessa was hit; in the port of Chernomorsk dry cargo stocks were attacked…Locomotives in Odessa and Dnipropetrovsk region are affected.”
Energy infrastructure targets hit included the Kievskaya electric substation in Kiev and the turbines of the Zmievskaya Thermal Power Plant and a gas pipeline passing through the territory of the plant.
Trump tweeted on Sunday afternoon, his time: “Effective immediately, there is an ENERGY CEASEFIRE in the War between Russia and Ukraine. Both parties have agreed. Do not break it! Thank you for your attention to this matter.”
Independent military blogger AMP Mapping responded, corroborating Tsarev’s reports: “In case it wasn’t already obvious, Trump’s statement about an energy ceasefire is a lie. Russian Geran-4/5 jet-drones have been attacking various energy facilities in Ukraine, including the TEC-5 Thermal Power Plant near Kharkov, the 750 kV Kievskaya Substation, and the 330 kV Novokievskaya Substation, among others.”
Zelensky responded to Trump’s ceasefire claim through the Israeli-American propaganda sheet, Axios: “It was news to me. But if the Russians agree, Ukraine will also agree. Let us know when the truce begins.”
Peskov replied: “Vladimir Zelensky is currently hysterical and incapable of taking deliberate action; if he were rational, he would be open to peace talks, Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov told Vesti reporter Pavel Zarubin. ‘Zelensky, naturally, being in a state of hysteria, is hardly capable of taking any deliberate actions right now. If he were capable of doing so, he would show a willingness to engage in peace talks,’ the spokesman noted.”
Repeating Trump, Dmitriev tweeted: “The Ukrainian election is coming.”
Ukrainian, European, and British officials then told the Financial Times in London to report that “the Trump administration is threatening to stop the procurement system that provides Ukraine with weapons in order to press Kyiv to halt its deep strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, according to officials in Europe. The officials, who received calls from American officials on Saturday and Sunday or were briefed on them, said the US was lobbying European capitals and Kyiv in an attempt to end the attacks on Russian oil refineries. The White House declined to confirm or comment on the calls. The US message, the officials added, included threats to cut off intelligence sharing and PURL — the Prioritised Ukraine Requirements List mechanism for procuring US weapons for Ukraine. ‘They are calling Kyiv…they are calling everyone [in Europe]’ said an official who received a call from a US defence official. PURL is a NATO-managed initiative through which Kyiv’s allies purchase US-made weapons that are then supplied to Ukraine. The US does not make a financial contribution to the fund. One person who said he was contacted by US officials was Pavlo Palisa, Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s military adviser and former general of Ukraine’s 93rd mechanised brigade.”
Correction for the record.
In the podcasts and in the accompanying Dances with Bears publication, I identified the first new general license in partial relief of Russia sanctions which has been issued by the US Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC). This was General License 13S. Posted on October 8, before the Putin-Trump call, it can be read in full here. This authorizes all transactions, whatever the commodity, product, or financial instrument, in and through Russia by US persons “or entities owned or controlled, directly or indirectly, by a U.S. person” for the purposes “to pay taxes, fees, or import duties, and purchase or receive permits, licenses, registrations, certifications, or tax refunds.” The relief is scheduled to expire on January 9, 2027.
On October 9, reportedly after the presidential telephone call, OFAC published General License 135. This lifts the sanctions on transactions “that are related to the sale, delivery, offloading, or importation, including importation into the United States, of diesel fuel of Russian Federation origin.” The term lasts until April 7, 2027.”
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